![]() ![]() If you prefer to contextualize this in terms of adjusting to a new rate regime or a future increase in the cost of capital, well sure, whatever narrative explanation works for you. What is going on in 2022? Perhaps it’s nothing more complex than mean reversion. Over the past decade, we have enjoyed returns of above 14% per year (18.9% if we go back to 2009 lows) within that decade, the past two years gained 20% and 28%. Perhaps we can channel William of Ockham’s approach to find solace in a simpler explanation: Mean Reversion.Ĭonsider a few details about returns: Over longer periods of time, equity markets generate average returns of 8-9%. Complex combinations of inflation, war, rising Fed Fund rates, end of cheap capital, fall-off in liquidity, impending recession, and political unrest are proferred, along with my favorite explainer of all, “ This is all passive indexing’s fault.” ![]() That should be front of mind as you read the many competing explanations for why markets have been selling off this year. ![]() Born in 1285, William of Ockham stated pluralitas non-est ponenda sine necessitate, which translates to “ plurality should not be posited without necessity.” Or to make it even more accessible: “Of competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred.” Never disregard Occam’s Razor as an explanation for events you find confusing. Dictionnaire de théologie catholique, 11.1.A few words about this year’s market action during this respite in the selling. Menges MC (1952) The concept of univocity regarding the predication of God and creature according to William of Ockham. McGrade AS (1974) The political thought of William of Ockham. Pontifical Institute of Mediaeval Studies, Toronto ![]() Maurer A (1999) The philosophy of William of Ockham in the light of its principles. Maurer A (1984) Ockham’s razor and Chatton’s anti-razor. Goddu A (1984) The physics of William of Ockham. Gál G (1981) William of Ockham died ‘impenitent’ in April 1347. Francisc Stud 44 (1984), 45 (1985), and 46 (1986)įreppert L (1988) The basis of morality according to William of Ockham. Force of words and figures of speech: the crisis over ‘Virtus sermonis’ in the fourteenth century. In: Zimmermann A (ed) Sprache und Erkenntnis im Mittelalter, Miscellanea Mediaevalia 13.1. Francisc Stud 32:15–64īrown SF (1981) A modern prologue to Ockham’s natural philosophy. Arch Francisc Hist 53:442–449īrown SF (1972) Walter Burleigh’s treatise De suppositionibus and its influence on William of Ockham. Bonaventureīrampton CK (1960) Traditions relating to the death of William of Ockham. Felix Meiner, Hamburgīoehner P (1992) In: Buytaert EM (ed), Collected articles on Ockham, 2nd edn. University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dameīeckman JP (1992) Ockham-bibliographie, 1900–1990. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeĪdams MM (1987) William Ockham, 2 vols. Ockham William (1995) In: McGrade AS, Kilcullen J (eds) “A letter to the Friars Minor” and other writings, Cambridge texts in the history of political thought, trans. Ockham William (1992) In: McGrade AS (ed) Short discourse on tyrannical government, trans. Ockham William (1991) Quodlibetal questions, trans. Ockham William (1989) Ockham on Aristotle’s physics, A translation of Ockham’ s Brevis Summa libri physicorum, trans. Ockham William (1983) Predestination, God’s foreknowledge, and future contingents, 2nd edn., trans. University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dame Ockham William (1980) Ockham’s theory of propositions: part II of the “Summa logicae”, trans. Ockham William (1974) Ockham’s theory of terms: part I of the “Summa logicae”, trans. Ockham William (1973) William of Ockham’s commentary on Porphyry, trans. Sikes JG, Offler HS, Snape RH, Bennett RF. Bonaventureĭe Ockham Guillelmi (1940) Octo quaestiones de potestate papae, An princeps pro suo succursu, scilicet guerrae, possit recipere bona ecclesiarum, etiam invite papa Consultatio de causa matrimoniali et Opus nonaginta dierum, cc. Editiones Instituti Franciscani Universitatis S. Manchester University Press, Manchesterĭe Ockham Guillelmi (1967–1987) Opera philosophica et theologica, 19 vols, ed. Manchester University Press, Manchesterĭe Ockham Guillelmi (1963) Opus nonaginta dierum, cc. De Ockham Guillelmi (1956) Epistola ad fratres minores,Tractatus contra Ioannem, et Tractatus contra Benedictum, ed. ![]()
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